October Big 8 Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Cloud
Criminal Origins
**The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger**
The Gold of Cajamarca
Thoroughly Modern Millie

This category is relatively easy to predict due to little options. "Dark Tower" and "Criminal Origins" are locks because of buzz and quality. "Millie" has had a lot of attention in the precursors, as is "The Cloud". Even though I doubt it, "Cajamarca" is vulnerable to the other "Dark Tower" bait because I think it fell into some category confusion. Expect "Dark Tower" to win because it probably won't be honored elsewhere.

Best Original Screenplay
Behind Closed Doors
Field of Desire
**For Pay**
A Modern Tale
Tabula Rasa

This one always offers some surprises. "For Pay" is a lock and, after its GG win, "Behind Closed Doors" seems on its way to recognition. I don't think it's going to be as well received as it was in the precursors because most of the voters for those cannot vote for the Oscars. "Field" is really baity (even though I feel its unoriginal). "Tabula Rasa" is unique and creative, it will be nominated. "A Modern Tale" will probably surprise. There usually is a comedy in there and it is the most well-received original one. "For Pay" will win, I'd be very surprised if it didn't, but if it lost to anything it would be "Tabula Rasa".

Best Supporting Actress
Maggie Gyllenhaal-Behind Closed Doors
Lisa Kudrow-The Curious Savage
Megan Mulally-Thoroughly Modern Millie
**Dominique Swain-For Pay**
Patricia Wettig-The Dead President

Gyllenhaal has won both the SAG and GG, but I don't fully believe all the hype for the bait. Mulally will probably get in because she's the best in a well-received, but not great, bait. Swain and Wettig enjoyed a lot of forum and precursor attention and both baits will be BP noms. Kudrow is the surprise. Her character is extremely baity and she is well cast. I feel voters will recognize that. Swain will win with Mulally being a potential spoiler.

Best Supporting Actor
Richard Chamberlain-For Pay
Colin Farrell-The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three
**Dennis Haysbert-Criminal Origins**
Jeremy Piven-The Dead President
David Strathairn-The Cloud

Chamberlain and Strathairn have very baity roles and in this weak category that's enough to score a nom. Haysbert has been widely buzzed and praised despite losing to Piven twice. Piven will get in on "Dead President" love. Farrell will get the fifth slot because the second "Dark Tower" will have to be rewarded somewhere. Haysbert will win on overwhelming buzz, but never underestimate the power of Piven.

Best Actress
Sutton Foster-Thoroughly Modern Millie
Jennifer Hudson-Mr. & Mrs. Woods
Natalie Portman-The Cloud
Meryl Streep-A Modern Tale
**Kerry Washington-Field of Desire**

Washington and Streep are locks. Portman and Foster are balancing on the edge, but this month is so weak it doesn't really matter. Hudson will surprise some, but not all. Susan Sarandon might get in for a very baity, but familiar, role in "Things We Lost in the Time of War". Washington will probably win, but watch out for Streep, she's sneaky.

Best Actor
**Jeff Bridges-The Dead President**
Macaulay Culkin-For Pay
Jude Law-Tabula Rasa
Daniel Day-Lewis-The Gold of Cajamarca
John Goodman-Behind Closed Doors

Bridges and Culkin are locks. No question about it. Goodman is riding enough support to get it. Law is a strong possibility, but could easily be knocked out by Mortensen. Day-Lewis steals the fifth spot on pedigree and an amazing role in an amazing bait. This race is somewhat similar to July 2006, in that a serial killer loses to someone completely unpredictable even after garnering unbelievable attention before the awards. Bridges fits that mold. He is predicted to be nominated but not to win.

Best Director
David Fincher-Criminal Origins
Marc Forster-The Cloud
David Lynch-The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
Mike Nichols-The Dead President
**Gus Van Sant-For Pay**

Van Sant is a lock and will win. Nichols and Fincher have been liked all around. Forster just won the GG. Lynch is Lynch. He always gets in even if it's undeserving, which in this case it isn't. Van Sant wins because I'll never win Best Director and he's the best of the 5.

Best Picture
The Cloud
**The Dead President**
For Pay
The Gold of Cajamarca
Thoroughly Modern Millie

"For Pay" and "The Dead President" are locks and will battle it out for the win. "Cajamarca" and "Millie" have good enough buzz to get in during the weakest of months. "The Cloud" is the surprise fifth nominee that is lucky to be acknowledged. "The Dead President" will win because I'm ready for it and it has gotten great buzz, despite losing the GG. "For Pay" has a great chance as well.

An Update

Thanks to everyone who voted for Jeremy Piven for Best Supporting Actor at the SAGs. It was very surprising. But more importantly, thanks for the Best Ensemble win for "The Dead President". I was shocked at how well received the bait was. I thought it was the weaker of my two but I guess the subject matter of "The Road We Traveled" turned a lot of people off. Oh well.

On another note, I will give a brief statement about my baits for November. The first will be a Zach Braff comedy called "The Resurrection of Groucho Marx", which stars Jake Gyllenhaal as a man who loses his family and decides to become the greatest Groucho Mrax impersonator there ever was. Eugene Levy and Kate Hudson co-star.

The second is tentatively going to be a Terry George-directed film named "The Kings of Baghdad". It tells the story of a reporter (Reese Witherspoon) who's making a documentary about two brothers (Michael Biehn, Mickey Rourke) who monopolize Baghdad's tire market. Ryan Gosling also stars.

October Big 8 Awards

Best Picture
The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
**The Gold of Cajamarca**
Mr. & Mrs. Woods
Thoroughly Modern Millie
Welcome Back

Best Director
Richard Attenborough-The Good Guy
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris-Mr. & Mrs. Woods
David Fincher-Criminal Origins
**Terrence Malick-The Gold of Cajamarca**
Gus Van Sant-For Pay

Best Actor
Edward Burns-Welcome Back
**Daniel Day-Lewis-The Gold of Cajamarca**
Viggo Mortensen-The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
Christopher Walken-Harvey Black.
Patrick Wilson-Thoroughly Modern Millie

Best Actress
Kristin Bell-Stuck on Level 13
Sutton Foster-Thoroughly Modern Millie
Jennifer Hudson-Mr. & Mrs. Woods
**Queen Latifah-The Curious Savage**
Meryl Streep-A Modern Tale

Best Supporting Actor
Adam Beach-The Gold of Cajamarca
Clancy Brown-Tabula Rasa
**Colin Farrell-The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three**
Dennis Haysbert-Criminal Origins
Sam Sheperd-Zeppelin 2020

Best Supporting Actress
Lisa Kudrow-The Curious Savage
Megan Mulally-Thoroughly Modern Millie
**Meryl Streep-Mr. & Mrs. Woods**
Dominique Swain-For Pay
Tilda Swinton-LD

Best Adapted Screenplay
Criminal Origins
**The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger**
The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three
The Gold of Cajamarca
Thoroughly Modern Millie

Best Original Screenplay
The Curious Savage
For Pay
**The Good Guy**
Mr. & Mrs. Woods
Welcome Back

October Reviews Part 2

The Ice Princess- C-

If Tomorrow Never Comes...- C-

Kathy's Desire- C-

LD- C+

A Modern Tale- B-

Mr. & Mrs. Woods- B+

Needle in the Hay- B-

Stanford's Prisons- C

Stuck on Level 13- D

Switching Time- C-

Tabula Rasa- B

Things We Lost In The Time Of War- D

Thoroughly Modern Millie- B+

To Serve Man- C

Welcome Back- B

The Witch of Portobello- D

Zeppelin 2020- B-


My Big 8 Awards will be up shortly.

October Grades Part 1

Excluding my baits "The Dead President" and "The Road We Traveled". I wanted to thank everybody who's given such great support to "The Dead President". It is greatly appreciated.

Part 2 will be up later tonight. I got tired of reading.

Behind Closed Doors- C

Catastrophe-Astrophe- C

The Cloud- B-

Criminal Origins- B-

The Curious Savage- B

The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger- B+

The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three- B

Field of Desire- C- (The plot is basically the same as "Border Man")

For Pay- B+

The Gold of Cajamarca- A-

The Good Guy- B-

Greensleeves- D

Harvey Black.- B-

The Haunting- D

Home Sweet Home- D-

Awards Profile: Into The Wild

"Wow." That's what I said to my friend as I slowly rose from my seat after seeing this movie. Nearly 2 1/2 hours in length, "Into the Wild" is a cinematic masterpiece filled with astounding cinematograpy, amazing acting, and exceptional direction. I'll be very angry if this doesn't show up in at least the Drama race at the Golden Globes. It deserves it for daring to be a visual feast of family lessons and naturalizm.

Emile Hirsch is in control the entire time and portrays the sense of slight insanity very well, only showing it when he should. Catherine Keener could slide into a nom if the rest of the field is weak. Her part isn't that big but she steals the show whenever she's there. She has one of the those monologues that the Academy just eats up to. Hal Holbrook could slip in too as acknowledgment for his years of devotion to television and film. He is very heartbreaking, especially in his eyes, which Penn utilizes to get inside the character.

Awards Contender:
Best Picture
Best Director-Sean Penn
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Actor-Emile Hirsch
Best Supporting Actor-Hal Holbrook
Best Supporting Actress-Catherine Keener
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Score
Best Original Song (There are four options here, and all worthy)

Award Profile: In The Valley Of Elah

Based upon actual events, awards juggernaut Paul Haggis' new film "In The Valley of Elah" tells the story of a man searching for his son's murderer and ends up re-examining his beliefs about war. Haggis keeps the film very low key, with everything quiet and seeming to be a shade of grey. While some might say he beats you over the head with his message, I felt that it was very well presented, which is what I said about "Crash" and look at what happened there. Needless to say, this film probably has no shot at getting a BP nom, unless the rest of the major contenders crumble. The screenplay is good and worthy of a nomination, but not amazing. Tommy Lee Jones delivers yet another amazing performance like in "The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada" without the charm and happiness. He doesn't smile once while grieving for his son and balancing his increasing distrust with an institution he has lived by for years. While I would love to see him get in, I feel the performance is too bland when compared to what's been seen of Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" and Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead". Charlize Theron could actually slide into a Supporting nom even though she is obviously the female lead. Her performance is so collected and controlled, which has allowed for her to earn an undeserving nod for "North Country".

Awards Possibilities:
Best Director-Paul Haggis
Best Screenplay
Best Actor-Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress-Charlize Theron
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Original Song

Next: "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" or "Into the Wild"

No Wins This Month :(

Another month with no wins for me. Oh well. Maybe October. Last October I was favored to win with "Live From New York" but didn't because I assume the voters didn't want to create a double BOTM winner so early in the contest.

Congratulations to most winners, especially Maia for a very deserving win for Best Author! I completely disagree with the Bait of the Month, "Cinemateque", but shit happens.

I apologize to anybody who was looking forward to my commentary for September's contest. I just started my Sophomore year at college and have been swamped with work. In addition to that, I seem to have lost interest in some of the contest because, as most of you have noticed, I feel the bait quality is getting worse and worse.

For October, I hope to be vying for my 2nd BOTM with "The Road We Traveled", which is bound to become controversial because of its pro-drug use plotline. I do want to say that it should be considered a Comedy for the Golden Globes, but it's really a dramedy. My other bait "The Dead President" is aimed to garner acting attention but I wouldn't fight against Best Picture notices for it.

As the next contest begins, I will be giving reviews during the next week but I will only do 5, so get them in soon. If anybody else wants to read or review my baits for their blogs (I expect you to do so if I'm doing it for you) I will send them. Good luck in October!