October Big 8 Predictions

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Cloud
Criminal Origins
**The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger**
The Gold of Cajamarca
Thoroughly Modern Millie

This category is relatively easy to predict due to little options. "Dark Tower" and "Criminal Origins" are locks because of buzz and quality. "Millie" has had a lot of attention in the precursors, as is "The Cloud". Even though I doubt it, "Cajamarca" is vulnerable to the other "Dark Tower" bait because I think it fell into some category confusion. Expect "Dark Tower" to win because it probably won't be honored elsewhere.

Best Original Screenplay
Behind Closed Doors
Field of Desire
**For Pay**
A Modern Tale
Tabula Rasa

This one always offers some surprises. "For Pay" is a lock and, after its GG win, "Behind Closed Doors" seems on its way to recognition. I don't think it's going to be as well received as it was in the precursors because most of the voters for those cannot vote for the Oscars. "Field" is really baity (even though I feel its unoriginal). "Tabula Rasa" is unique and creative, it will be nominated. "A Modern Tale" will probably surprise. There usually is a comedy in there and it is the most well-received original one. "For Pay" will win, I'd be very surprised if it didn't, but if it lost to anything it would be "Tabula Rasa".

Best Supporting Actress
Maggie Gyllenhaal-Behind Closed Doors
Lisa Kudrow-The Curious Savage
Megan Mulally-Thoroughly Modern Millie
**Dominique Swain-For Pay**
Patricia Wettig-The Dead President

Gyllenhaal has won both the SAG and GG, but I don't fully believe all the hype for the bait. Mulally will probably get in because she's the best in a well-received, but not great, bait. Swain and Wettig enjoyed a lot of forum and precursor attention and both baits will be BP noms. Kudrow is the surprise. Her character is extremely baity and she is well cast. I feel voters will recognize that. Swain will win with Mulally being a potential spoiler.

Best Supporting Actor
Richard Chamberlain-For Pay
Colin Farrell-The Dark Tower II: The Drawing of the Three
**Dennis Haysbert-Criminal Origins**
Jeremy Piven-The Dead President
David Strathairn-The Cloud

Chamberlain and Strathairn have very baity roles and in this weak category that's enough to score a nom. Haysbert has been widely buzzed and praised despite losing to Piven twice. Piven will get in on "Dead President" love. Farrell will get the fifth slot because the second "Dark Tower" will have to be rewarded somewhere. Haysbert will win on overwhelming buzz, but never underestimate the power of Piven.

Best Actress
Sutton Foster-Thoroughly Modern Millie
Jennifer Hudson-Mr. & Mrs. Woods
Natalie Portman-The Cloud
Meryl Streep-A Modern Tale
**Kerry Washington-Field of Desire**

Washington and Streep are locks. Portman and Foster are balancing on the edge, but this month is so weak it doesn't really matter. Hudson will surprise some, but not all. Susan Sarandon might get in for a very baity, but familiar, role in "Things We Lost in the Time of War". Washington will probably win, but watch out for Streep, she's sneaky.

Best Actor
**Jeff Bridges-The Dead President**
Macaulay Culkin-For Pay
Jude Law-Tabula Rasa
Daniel Day-Lewis-The Gold of Cajamarca
John Goodman-Behind Closed Doors

Bridges and Culkin are locks. No question about it. Goodman is riding enough support to get it. Law is a strong possibility, but could easily be knocked out by Mortensen. Day-Lewis steals the fifth spot on pedigree and an amazing role in an amazing bait. This race is somewhat similar to July 2006, in that a serial killer loses to someone completely unpredictable even after garnering unbelievable attention before the awards. Bridges fits that mold. He is predicted to be nominated but not to win.

Best Director
David Fincher-Criminal Origins
Marc Forster-The Cloud
David Lynch-The Dark Tower I: The Gunslinger
Mike Nichols-The Dead President
**Gus Van Sant-For Pay**

Van Sant is a lock and will win. Nichols and Fincher have been liked all around. Forster just won the GG. Lynch is Lynch. He always gets in even if it's undeserving, which in this case it isn't. Van Sant wins because I'll never win Best Director and he's the best of the 5.

Best Picture
The Cloud
**The Dead President**
For Pay
The Gold of Cajamarca
Thoroughly Modern Millie

"For Pay" and "The Dead President" are locks and will battle it out for the win. "Cajamarca" and "Millie" have good enough buzz to get in during the weakest of months. "The Cloud" is the surprise fifth nominee that is lucky to be acknowledged. "The Dead President" will win because I'm ready for it and it has gotten great buzz, despite losing the GG. "For Pay" has a great chance as well.